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	Oil: Where It Is and How Much Is Left The world isn't literally about to run out of oil. But while demand, now 80 million barrels a day, continues to grow, production of conventional (easily extracted) oil will peak eventually, with production declining after that. In the continental United States, production has already peaked?way back in 1970. There were no headlines then because the U.S. made up the difference with imported oil. When the world supply peaks, it will be far more difficult to meet demand. Unconventional sources like Canada's tar sands (above) can help, but extraction is punishing to the environment and costly: Oil prices will rise and stay high, say some experts, disrupting world economies. Trouble Up Ahead When will the peak hit? Depends on who you ask. David Greene of Oak Ridge National Laboratory analyzed oil production rates based on a variety of supply estimates. His interpretation of data from U.K.-based Colin Campbell offers a grim picture: World production will most likely peak about 2016, and outside the Middle East around 2006. Using data from the U.S. Geological Survey, Greene presents a brighter picture, with world production most likely to peak around 2040. Greene notes, however, that his study has a built-in optimism, since it doesn't factor in political or environmental constraints on production. Some experts, in fact, think the peak is already here. The timing rests largely on the actions of Middle East producers and on moves to conserve and to develop unconventional sources. Either way, time is short.