global warming

Global Warming
2004. 10

Global Warming ? 3 Signs

After a decade as Editor in Chief, I have a pretty good idea which articles will provoke a lot of angry letters. Whenever we publish stories that challenge widely held beliefs, some readers get mad, and they write to let us know.
Well, we’re about to do it again. I’d willing to bet that we’ll get letters from readers who don’t believe global climate chagne is real, and that humans contribute to the problem. Some readers will even terminate their memberships.
Why would I publish articles that make people angry enough to stop subscribing? That’s easy. These stories cover subjects that are too important to ignore. …

From Bill Allen
National Geographic Magazine 2004 Sept

Geo Sign
The Earth has some unsetting news.
From Alaska to the snowy peaks of the Andes the world is heating up right now, and fast.
Eco Sign
Flora and fauna are feeling the heat too.
These are not projects; they are facts on the ground.
Time Sign
Maybe the current warming is just a passing thing?
Don’t bet on it, say climate experts.
Something else is driving the planet-wide fever. Greenhouse gas.

Geo signs

Climate is changing

Retreating glaciers, rising seas, and shrinking lakes are some of the global changes already under way.

The climate is changing at an unnerving pace.

Goodbye Glacier
Runoff from the Bockkogel Glacier in the Tirol region of Austria plunges down a waterfall during the Alpine summer.
Throughout the Alps, glaciers have been in decline for 150 years, a result of rising global temperatures.
Most scientists who study the phenomenon attribute it in part to greenhouse effect.

Alaska Feeling the Heat
추운 지방은 온난화에 민감
지난 삼십년 동안 평균 기온 화씨 4.16 도 상승
in the northern city of Barrow, Alaska.

침엽수는 날씨가 따뜻하고 건조하면 산불이 나기 쉽다.
Snow and ice have a high albedo ? they reflect a lot of solar energy. But as heat melts snow and ice, darker, less reflective land or water is exposed. More heat is absorbed, giving rise to further melting and warming.

Warming trends
Average Northern Hemisphere surface temp

Seasons Shift
Researchers monitoring ice on Wisconsin's Lake Mendota discover that the ice cover on the lake averages about 40 fewer days now than it did 150 years ago.
Winter, in Wisconsin, is losing its chill.

Looking Back
Photograph by Peter Essick Tourists in the canton of Valais, Switzerland, stand at the site where the Rhone Glacier ended during the Little Ice Age in the mid-1800s. The glacier has since retreated up the valley as Alpine temperatures have risen. It can be seen in this photo peeking over a cliff in the distance.

Iceberg Factory
The Marr Ice Piedmont, a glacier that ends near Palmer Station on the Antarctic Peninsula, crumbles into the sea.
Elsewhere on the peninsula, a section of ice shelf larger than the state of Rhode Island broke apart in early 2002.
The suspected culprit for such events? Climate warming.
Average winter temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have risen nearly 9°F (5°C) since 1950.

Cut Down to Size
the massive Columbia Glacier, located near Valdez in Prince William Sound, doesn't creep
Between 1977 and 1999 its length decreased by eight miles (13 kilometers).The glacier is expected to lose another ten miles (20 kilometers) of length by 2010.

Surface Temperature Anomaly

Eco Signs
Fleischmann's glass frog, a declining species in parts of Costa Rica

From penguins to alpine flowers, animals and plants are coping with the heat?or they're not.

A Growing Concern
Botanist Tad Day is seeing green. He's documenting the spread of the only two species of flowering plants known to grow in Antarctica: the antarctic hair grass and the antarctic pearlwort.
At this offshore site on Anvers Island near Palmer Station, neither plant was detected in 1995.
By 1999, 23 pearlworts and 94 hair grasses had appeared; this year Day tallied 294 pearlworts and 5,129 hair grasses.

Warmer temperatures, he reasons, promote vegetative growth, cause larger percentages of seeds to germinate, and force glacial ice to recede, exposing more terrain for plants.

Uphill Climb
Rapid warming in high mountains
May be forcing alpine flowers to compete with taller plants inching up from below
Helianthemum alpestre

Coral Damages
Coral Bleach

Time Signs

Computer scientist Jason Sun views multiple screens to monitor the intricate interplay of warm and cold ocean currents ? a prime driver of Earth’s changing climate.

What causes climate change? Could a climate "flip" happen virtually overnight?

Hard Core
Glaciologists Victor Zagorodnov, left, and Patrick Ginot extract a section of a 550-foot (170-meter) core from the summit of Peru's Quelccaya ice cap, at an elevation of about 18,600 feet (5,670 meters).
The ratio of certain oxygen isotopes in the ice varies with temperature, enabling scientists to distinguish cold periods from warm periods over thousands of years.

Rising temperatures are causing Quelccaya?the world's largest tropical ice cap?to retreat rapidly. Its major outlet glacier has receded nearly 3,100 feet (950 meters) since 1963?the smallest it's been in about 5,000 years.

Frozen Histroy

Touching climate history
The gloved hand of Tracy Mashiotta, a researcher at Ohio State's Byrd Polar Research Center, points to a dust band in an ice core from Peru's Quelccaya ice cap.
The dust is swept up from Peru's high desert and deposited on the glacier each year during the dry season, creating the glacial equivalent of a tree's growth ring.
Scientists use such data along with oxygen isotope ratios to extrapolate temperature and precipitation for each year.
Such cores from Quelccaya have produced the longest annual climate record ever recovered from the tropics, dating back 2,200 years.

No High Ground
It's pretty as a postcard from the air. You'd never guess that Male (above), the island capital of the Maldives, is threatened by the serenely blue Indian Ocean.
If scientists' worst-case projections come true and sea level rises more than three feet, the Maldives and other low-lying atoll nations could be underwater by century's end.

Greenhouse Effect

지구의 평균온도
태양에너지와 거리를 고려하면 섭씨 -18도
실제 평균온도는 15도
수증기와 이산화탄소
Fourier
Tyndall

Greenhouse Effect
이산화탄소는 적외선을 흡수한다
대기중 이산화탄소 농도는 증가하였다
지구의 평균 기온이 증가하였다

Astronomical Rhythm
Link between ice ages and astronomical rhythms
Climate model vs. observed temperature
Global Ocean Circulation System

Great Conveyor Belt
Thermohaline (temperature- and salinity-controlled density) circulation of the oceans can be simplistically defined by a great conveyor belt.
In this model, warm, salty surface water is chilled and sinks in the North Atlantic to flow south towards Antarctica. There, it is cooled further to flow outward at the bottom of the oceans into the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific basins. After upwelling primarily in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, the water returns as surface flow to the North Atlantic.
While traveling deep in the ocean the originally nutrient-depleted water becomes increasingly enriched by organic matter decomposition in important nutrients (e.g., phosphate, nitrate, silicate) and dissolved CO2.
Figure courtesy of Jim Kennett and Jeff Johnson, University of California Santa Barbara.

Global climate change
Meteorologists agree that these exceptional conditions are signs that Global Climate Change is happening already.
Scientists agree that the most likely cause of the changes are man-made emissions of the so-called "Greenhouse Gases" that can trap heat in the earth's atmosphere in the same way that glass traps heat in a greenhouse.
Although there are six major groups of gases that contribute to Global Climate Change, the most common is Carbon Dioxide (CO2).

Greenhouse gas level hits record high
Recordings from a volcano-top observatory, NOAA's Mauna Loa Observatory on Hawaii, showed carbon dioxide levels had risen to an average of about 376 parts per million (ppm) for 2003.
This is 2.5 ppm up from the average for 2002. It is not the highest leap in year-on-year atmospheric carbon dioxide levels recorded by NOAA. But it is the first to be sustained, with 2002 levels up 2.5 ppm from 2001.
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99994802

Greenhouse effect is real

The day after tomorrow

지구 에너지 균형
지구 에너지의 근원은 태양
표면에서 방출되는 열의 약 84%를 대기가 흡수

VSEPR

왜 적외선을 흡수하는가?
다양한 전자기파
Typical IR spectrum
Types of Molecular Vibrations
Stretching (신축)
change in bond length
Symmetric / asymmetric
Bending (굽힘)
change in bond angle
symmetric scissoring
asymmetric wagging
Rocking (좌우 흔듬)
twisting/torsion (꼬임)

Animated Vibrations

Molecular vibration

Vibrational Normal modes
Number of possible vibrations in a polyatomic molecule
2 atoms (H2) - 1 vibration (stretch n)
3 atoms (H2O) - 3 vibrations (n s, n as, s)
3 atoms (CO2) - 4 vibrations (n s, n as, s, w)
4 atoms (H2CO) - 6 vibrations (n s, n as, s, w, r(CH2) n(C=O))
...
3N - 6 for Non - linear molecule
3N - 5 for Linear molecule
3N degrees of freedom for N atoms
3 translation
3(or 2) rotation ? rotation about the bond axis is not possible
Orhters are "Normal modes“ (기준진동 방식, 정규진동)

Principle Types of Motion

Carbon Cycle
대기중 이산화탄소에 대한 인간의 역할
Stationary burning includes discharges from all burning of fossil fuels in the various types of stationary installations; for example, gas turbines on production platforms and oil burning for heating rooms.
Mobile combustion includes discharges from all burning of fossil fuel connected to transportation and mobile equipment; for example, engines in cars and boats.
Process operations includes all discharges which are not connected to burning; for example, coal and coke used as reducing compounds in metal production and emissions from waste depositories.

메탄과 다른 온실기체
CO2
1.5 ppm/year
대기중 수명 200-500년
CH4
쓰레기 매립지, 유기물질 부패, 농업과 축산업
적외선 약 30배 흡수
대기중 수명 12년
0.010 ppm/year
N2O
웃음기체
인공화학비료와 생물의 연소
0.0008 ppm/year
대기중 수명 120년

온실 효과
이산화탄소는 지구 온도를 올리는데 기여한다
대기중 이산화탄소 농도는 지난 세기에 비해 증가하였다.
이산화탄소 농도 증가는 인간활동의 결과이다.
지난 세기 동안 지구의 평균온도는 증가하였다.

온실효과 대 오존파괴
Global warming links
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) www.ipcc.ch The IPCC is the most authoritative source for statistics and figures on climate change. Visit this site to view the latest assessment reports, press releases, and graphics. U.S. Global Change Research Program www.usgcrp.gov This site brings together information about federally funded research on global warming, changing ecosystems, the carbon cycle, the water cycle, and much more. It contains links to hundreds of U.S. and international science organizations. Global Warming yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/index.html The United States Environmental Protection Agency's global warming site is a great place to begin investigating how your area will be affected by climate change. Included are sections on sea-level rise, the impacts of warming on health, and things you can do to help reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Pew Center on Global Climate Change www.pewclimate.org This nonprofit organization is "dedicated to providing credible information, straight answers, and innovative solutions in the effort to address global climate change." It provides information on the science behind climate change, the potential consequences of it, a glossary of relevant terms, and other valuable material. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html Log on here to get a synopsis of the 2001 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and read scientists' replies to questions that are commonly asked of climate experts. Antarctica www.wbur.org/special/antarctica/photogallery/multimedia.asp Watch video footage of Adelie penguins on the western Antarctic Peninsula and follow a narrated slide show of scientist Bill Fraser as he explains how climate change has affected their populations. Coral Reefs www.aims.gov.au/pages/research/coral-bleaching/coral-bleaching.html How is climate change affecting the world's oceans, and what is coral bleaching? Visit the Australian Institute of Marine Science website to find out. Paleoclimatology www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html At this National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website you can learn about past abrupt climate change and global warming. The site contains a long list of links and includes some material in Spanish. National Snow and Ice Data Center nsidc.org/index.html Want to learn how the cryosphere?the world of ice and snow?is sending signals of a changing climate? This site provides information on mountain glacier fluctuations, permafrost conditions, ice-shelf changes, and sea-ice decreases.

Global warming references
Alley, Richard B. The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future. Princeton University Press, 2000. Burroughs, William, ed. Climate: Into the 21st Century. Cambridge University Press, 2003. Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna. Arctic Flora and Fauna: Status and Conservation. Edita, 2001. Davis, Lloyd Spencer. Penguin: A Season in the Life of the Adelie Penguin. Harcourt, 1994. Douglas, Bruce C., Michael S. Kearney, and Stephen P. Leatherman, eds. Sea Level Rise: History and Consequences. Academic Press, 2000. Drake, Frances. Global Warming: The Science of Climate Change. Arnold, 2000. Hall, Myrna, H. P. Hall, and Daniel B. Fagre. "Modeled Climate-Induced Glacier Change in Glacier National Park, 1850-2100." BioScience (February 2003),131-40. Johansen, Bruce E. The Global Warming Desk Reference. Greenwood Press, 2002. Kerr, Richard A. "Whither Arctic Ice? Less of It, for Sure." Science (August 30, 2002). Available online at www.sciencemag.org. Meier, Mark F., and John M. Wahr. "Sea level is rising: Do we know why?" Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Sciences (May 14, 2002), 6524-26. Ross, Robin M., Eileen E. Hofman, and Langdon B. Quetin. Foundations for Ecological Research West of the Antarctic Peninsula. American Geophysical Union, 1996. Stirling, Ian. Polar Bears. University of Michigan Press, 1988. Ward, Bud, ed. Reporting on Climate Change: Understanding the Science. Environmental Law Institute, 2003. Order a free copyonline at www.gcrio.org/orders/product_info.php?products_id=87. Weart, Spencer R. The Discovery of Global Warming. Harvard University Press, 2003.
Global warming ? national geographic
Sept 2004
Tourtellot, Jonathan B. "Beachside Brazil." National Geographic Traveler (April 2004), 34. Gordon, David George. "Global Warming: Sweating the Small Stuff." National Geographic Kids (April 2003), 34-5. Klesius, Michael. "The State of the Planet: A Global Report Card." National Geographic (September 2002), 102-15. Suplee, Curt. "Unlocking the Climate Puzzle." National Geographic (May 1998), 38-71. Glantz, Michael H. "Climatic Shifts: Omens of Global Warming." Restless Earth. National Geographic Books, 1997. Matthews, Samuel W. "Under the Sun?Is Our World Warming?" National Geographic (October 1990), 66-99.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
In response to growing scientific and political debate about the effects of human activities on Earth's climate, the UN Environmental Program and the World Meteorological Organization created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988.
The Panel's purpose is not to conduct research or produce new data, but to evaluate climate data available primarily in peer-reviewed, published scientific journals.
The IPCC's third assessment report (TAR), issued in 2001, is a four-volume examination of the state of the world's climate and is the basis for much of the material in this month's series of articles on climate change.
on the Web at www.ipcc.ch.